Most of us woke up this morning to the disappointing news that Britons had made the shocking and puzzling decision to leave the European Union.  Since I live on the West Coast of the United States, I was still up when David Cameron delivered his quintessentially British, stiff upper lip resignation speech.  He said all the right things, sounded very presidential (or prime ministerial), and was ultimately correct in that Britain, and the world for that matter, will go on.

But some fundamental things did change last night.  And Britain’s voice and vote do matter.  Or at least they did.  Britain has a proud history of standing up and being counted in the fraternity of nations.  True, they have any number of imperial skeletons in the closet, as any colonial power does.  But time and again, when our collective backs were against the wall and someone needed to step up and do what was right, Britain was there.  They stood against the forces of authoritarianism in World War I.  They stared down Hitler and the fascists single-handedly before America staggered unwillingly into World War II.  They were there in the Cold War, flying planes into Berlin in 1948 in the beginning and supporting German re-unification at the end.  It is the nation of Gladstone, of Churchill, and of (pre-Iraq War) Tony Blair.  Britain remains steadfast in supporting global democracy and standing up to tyrants the world around in places like Ukraine where it has come under attack.  Which is why it is all the more demoralizing to see this proud nation take a callous, callow turn inward.  The repercussions, in part for the world but mostly for Britain, will be felt for generations.

Economically, Britain will go on but its strength and its relevance will diminish.  Gone are the free flow of goods, services, and people to the continent.  It is this last one that will hurt the most as our economies become more knowledge based and less tangibly oriented.  It weakens a nation that will now go back to issuing work visas with cynical quotas for their fellow Europeans.  The vast numbers of Eastern Europeans who migrated to London and other parts of the UK will feel the impact hardest and first, but the rest of England will soon feel their pain as well.  Make no mistake, this vote was motivated by narrow interests who perceived their competitiveness and livelihoods to be under attack by the European experiment.  And they were no doubt voting in what they felt was a logical and self-interested way, as we all do.  But what they may not appreciate are the long-term consequences for English growth and prosperity.  England sells 44% of its exports to Europe.[1]  That number is sure to diminish, along with the overall level of trade.  Yes, the UK will trade more with others but not as much and not as cheaply as with their next-door neighbors.  As anyone who knows anything about trade theory knows, diminished trade and greater autarky lead to less wealth and lower standards of living.  The Economist certainly understands this and forecasts the same, in an article published when the referendum was called for Leave late last night.[2]  With less trade and lower trade revenue, the tax base will decrease.  That means less money for government services.  Less money for the National Health System.  For schools.  For infrastructure.  For defense.  And yes, soccer fans, for the English Premiership.  If all European players will now be classified as foreigners, what happens to Manchester United, Arsenal, and Chelsea if they have to field a significantly more British team?

More important is the potential issues and existential crisis for the greater union as a whole.  From both a political and economic perspective, is it in Scotland’s long-term interests to stay in the UK, divorced from Europe?  Or Northern Ireland’s?  Both of them voted Remain.  And both now may vote to leave the UK, leaving only England and Wales to wonder what happened to their once-mighty union.  In perhaps one of the few silver linings to this tragedy, we may finally have the impetus to a united Ireland.  Britain, as it seems, is no longer an entity of relevance; it is probably more appropriate to talk of England now, since the kingdom is united no more.

Internationally, this move diminishes the UK’s role on the world stage and principally harms her chief ally, the United States.  The UK was an important moderating voice in Europe.  It was more conservative fiscally than the more profligate southern states but not as reviled as Germany since it stood outside of the monetary union.  It stands as a successful example of the blend of American entrepreneurship and a light regulatory touch alongside the basket of services (health care chief among them) that Europeans have come to expect from their government.  It continues to boast a world-class education system while avoiding the student debt crisis brought about by usurious tuition fees in the US.  But its position and importance was predicated upon being part of Europe.  Being a key player in the one of the key international bodies.  Having a seat at the table and using their influence to reign in the more statist tendencies of the certain continental powers.  On the outside looking in, they’re basically Japan.  A once-great economic power, now isolated and relegated to relative mediocrity and middling relevance.

Like many others, my thoughts have turned to the parallels with the American election.  The special relationship has always tied us to our mother country, and in the British vote we should take heed.  I, for one, took it for granted that Britain would vote Remain.  Of course they would.  It was the sane, rational, cosmopolitan choice.  In fact, I generally have more faith in the British electorate than its American counterpart.  Perhaps this is because all of the people that I know in Britain supported Remain.  My godparents.  My aid worker friends.  My former students.  But this is obviously an unrepresentative sample, akin to all of the polls coming out of Britain in the days before the vote.  Much like my surprise and consternation with the British electorate, so was I taken aback by the Republican presidential primary in the US.  I assured my friends domestically and abroad that Trump would never win the nomination.  The Republicans, despite some of their loathsome social beliefs and general intransigence, would never put up an unqualified, megalomaniacal buffoon as their party’s candidate for president.  Yet again, I was proven horribly wrong.

So what is the lesson for Americans from the Brexit catastrophe?  One is that we shouldn’t turn inward and neglect our global role when the world needs our leadership.  But the other, perhaps more important lesson, is that we can’t take for granted that our fellow citizens will do the right thing.  Make the responsible choice.  We need to get out there and make it happen.  We need to fight to maintain the vision of our country as an outwardly-focused, immigrant-friendly, free-trading paragon that rejects isolationism, provinciality, and a limited view of what our country stands for.

Through the US’ history, Britain has always stood steadfastly by our side.  And often, it was Britain showing the way and the US belatedly stepping up to do the right thing.  Britain has now made an unfortunate turn inward, as we have at times in our past, albeit by slim margins.  Many Britons continue to support the EU and are gutted today by the turn their country has taken.  I feel genuinely badly for them and know that they will have better days in the future.  They’re too smart, too talented, and too vibrant a country not to.  We should support them to push for a better Britain while still retaining the essential lessons for ourselves.  Democracy is a fickle beast that demands constant attention and careful supervision.  Like it or not, this was the will of the majority of Britons.  Mark Twain once said that “history doesn’t repeat itself.  But it often rhymes.”  Let’s make sure that come November, the lines that we write in our history books reflect the better tradition of our nation’s history and the better tradition of Britain’s as well.

[1] http://webarchive.nationalarchives.gov.uk/20160105160709/http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/rel/international-transactions/outward-foreign-affiliates-statistics/how-important-is-the-european-union-to-uk-trade-and-investment-/sty-eu.html

[2] http://www.economist.com/news/leaders/21701265-how-minimise-damage-britains-senseless-self-inflicted-blow-tragic-split