When I was little, my favorite book was a relatively obscure Dr. Seuss tome entitled Marvin K. Mooney Will You Please Go Now!  I made my mom read it to me again and again, as kids are wont to do.  The story centered around the eponymous Marvin K. Mooney, who stubbornly refused to go (ostensibly to bed, though the story never said).  In much the same vein, Nicolas Maduro, the overwhelmed, unqualified, and increasingly illegitimate president of Venezuela also obstinately refuses to go quietly into that good night.  But make no mistake, it is long time past for him to go.  For peace.  For prosperity.  For democracy.  But most importantly, for his people.

Maduro assumed the presidency in 2013 after a special election called in the wake of Hugo Chavez’s death from throat cancer.  The election itself, conducted after Chavez was never actually sworn in as president due to his illness, resulted in the narrowest of victories for Maduro (by 50.6% of the vote to 49.1% for his opponent) in which state media and financial resources were overwhelmingly at his disposal, in addition to the inherited legacy of the recently-deceased, still (at the time) beloved Chavez.  The opposition called the results into question, but a full audit was never performed.

While this initial electoral result may have in fact been legitimate, what followed has clearly been anything but.  Maduro and his Chavista party packed the Supreme Tribunal with loyalists in 2015 after the opposition won an election to control the National Assembly.  Only one year after the opposition assumed control of the legislative branch, Maduro had the Supreme Tribunal strip the National Assembly of its power, declaring them in contempt (ostensibly of Maduro).  Maduro called sham elections in which he gained the power to re-write the constitution, creating a Constituent Assembly of Venezuela for this very purpose.  Not surprisingly, Venezuela ranks among the worst governed [1] and most corrupt countries in the world,[2] while the World Economic Forum ranked it last in all countries measured for judicial independence in 2017-2018.[3]

The results of Maduro’s regime, and that of Chavez before him, are stark and depressing.  While Chavez may have initially had good intentions and his policies improved some metrics for a few years (health indicators, inequality, and access to education), the descent into penury, crippling incompetence, and state failure has been precipitous.  Due to mismanagement and inefficiencies, PDVSA, the state-owned oil company, now produces only a fraction of the oil they once pumped out.  Proud Venezuelans have seen their incomes plunge and their status as one of Latin America’s richest countries vanish alongside oil revenues.  Having talked to many of my Venezuelan friends here in Ecuador whose family members remain in that country, they tell me that food is scarce, medicine unavailable, and crime rampant.  It is not uncommon to see kids going through the trash in Caracas in an effort to find food.  This in a country where per capita incomes peaked at almost $11,000/year in 2012, the year before Maduro took over.  It now sits at $3,300/year and continues to drop.[4]

The situation has now come to a head because the opposition in Venezuela finally has someone—National Assembly Leader Juan Guaidó—around whom they can rally.  There has been widespread discontent with Maduro for years, evidenced by massive protests in 2014 that have only renewed and strengthened this year.  Maduro’s reelection last year was widely condemned as fraudulent by most reputable news outlets.  The fact that he chose to be sworn in by the Supreme Tribunal and not, as is customary, by the National Assembly, further underscores his illegitimacy.  It was at this point that Guaidó took the initiative to name himself the interim president, due to Maduro’s ongoing incompetence, corruption, and gross mismanagement of the economy, in addition to his patent illegitimacy.

As anyone who’s read this blog in the past knows, I am no fan of the Trump Administration.  But I do believe that they did the right thing in recognizing Guaidó as the legitimate president of Venezuela.  It was the right thing to do for Venezuela and for Latin American democracy, and most countries in the region, along with Canada and most of the EU, have followed suit.  It should not be surprising that illiberal or authoritarian regimes like Russia, China, Cuba, and Nicaragua have stuck by Maduro.  Sadly, Mexico under new President Manuel Lopez Obrador has chosen this course as well.  Russia’s and China’s motivations are clear.  Venezuela is beholden to them for decades of oil payments, as Maduro mortgaged the country’s future in his bid to maintain power, and these countries want to ensure that their investment pays off.  They also want a friendly stooge in the US’ backyard to continue to grate on America’s nerves.  It may well be that the Trump Administration, no great admirer or proponent of democracy itself, is merely interested in Venezuela’s oil.  Even if that were the case, supporting Guaidó remains the right thing to do to remove the cancer that is Maduro to let Venezuela recover and heal.  This is what Venezuelans want.  The hundreds of thousands of protestors in the streets demonstrate this.  As do the 3 million Venezuelans who have fled the country (10% of the overall population).  Venezuela’s neighbors are bulging with their refugees.  Those who have remained are plagued by hunger, crime, and uncertainty.  All while sitting on the world’s largest reserves of oil.  Venezuelans deserve better.

Let me be clear: neither the US nor any other foreign power should intervene militarily (unless state violence reaches a clearly unacceptable level—then and only then should an international coalition consider intervention as a viable option).  This is a domestic political problem that Venezuelans should sort out themselves.  But that doesn’t mean that we can’t help them.  With political pressure.  And more importantly, perhaps, targeted economic pressure.  The UK’s recent decision to deny Maduro access to gold in his British accounts is a commendable one.[5]  Maduro has shown that this money would not go toward the benefit of his people, rather to maintain his precarious hold on power.  To this end, Putin has apparently sent mercenaries to protect him.[6]  But Maduro must go.  Maduro and his coterie should be targeted with specific sanctions, much like the sanctions on particular Russian leaders.  He should be unwelcome in international capitals that do not recognize him as the legitimate leader of Venezuela.  The nations of Latin America should lead the way, as most of them have in saying the right things and condemning the action of Maduro and his government, in the Organization of America States, the Lima Group, and other fora.

The situation in Venezuela is a full-blown humanitarian crisis.  But it need not be.  Aid from the US and other countries is sitting at the Colombia border ready to be delivered, including much-needed food and essential medicines.  But Maduro refuses to let these life-saving supplies in.  He refuses to even admit that there is a humanitarian crisis.  Because that would be admitting failure.  And he, and his administration, have been failing the Venezuelan people for some time now.  And so he must either step aside or be forced out using all of the peaceful methods at the international community’s disposal.  For a better Venezuela tomorrow and the day after, Nicholas Maduro will you please go now!

[1] 7.7 out of 100 in the World Bank’s Worldwide Governance Indicator (WGI) Governance Effectiveness score https://datacatalog.worldbank.org/dataset/worldwide-governance-indicators

[2] Ranking 168/180 in Transparency International’s 2018 Corruption Perceptions Index https://www.transparency.org/cpi2018#results

[3] http://reports.weforum.org/pdf/gci-2017-2018-scorecard/WEF_GCI_2017_2018_Scorecard_EOSQ144.pdf

[4] https://www.statista.com/statistics/371876/gross-domestic-product-gdp-per-capita-in-venezuela/

[5] https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-01-25/u-k-said-to-deny-maduro-s-bid-to-pull-1-2-billion-of-gold

[6] https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/jan/25/venezuela-maduro-russia-private-security-contractors