Donald Trump represents a clear and present danger to the future of liberal democracy as we in the United States have known it.  In just the last few weeks, the incoming Trump Administration has shown its hand through three separate moves, all intended to dismantle American democracy as we know it.  First, they have demanded total and utter party loyalty to Trump, stating that his appointments should not have to go through the normal appointment and vetting process to ensure that we have quality cabinet members and agency heads in place.  Second, they have proposed the purging of the bureaucracy of knowledgeable, experienced, and talented government workers who represent the institutional knowledge and competent functioning of our government.  Third, they have circulated a proposed executive order that would purge military leadership of anyone not deemed sufficiently loyal to the Trump Administration.

If you were going to run roughshod over an established democracy, this is how you would do it: 1. Demand unquestioned fealty within the ruling party; 2. Remove anyone in government with the ability or knowledge to resist the total implementation of your dogma; and 3. Ensure that those who can enforce or resist your will through the use of force are utterly loyal to you and you alone.  This is terrifying and should be to anyone who values American democracy and the continued rule of law.

How 21st Century Democracies Die

In the 20th century, the destruction of democracy was often quick.  It frequently took the form of military coups, in particular in Latin American in the 1960s and 70s but in Africa and Asia in the Cold War era as well.  But the rise of despotism has evolved in the 21st century to take on a slower, more insidious form which political scientists call democratic erosion or backsliding.  This boils down to the death of democracy by a thousand cuts.

The playbook was initially developed by Hugo Chavez in Venezuela but has been tailored and repeated by the likes of Viktor Orban in Hungary, Tayyip Recep Erdogan in Turkey, and Narendra Modi in India, to name but a few.  First, illiberal democrats win legitimate elections because of popular dissatisfaction with establishment administrations but with no intention of handing over power thereafter.  Second, the legislature and the bureaucracy are subsumed by the party, and loyalists are installed in key positions while opponents are purged.  Third, any independent watchdog institutions like government oversight organizations, ombudsmen, and the media are knee capped.  Fourth, the last-resort protectors of democracy, the courts and military, are stacked with stooges when the regime has had enough time in government. Finally, civil society is tamed as protests are banned, with the military jailing or killing those who continue to oppose the regime.

In their book How Democracies Die, two noted chroniclers of this phenomenon, Steven Ziblatt and Daniel Levitsky, describe it this way: “elected autocrats maintain a veneer of democracy while eviscerating its substance.”  As a country gets progressively more illiberal and, eventually, authoritarian, you might have elections, but you no longer have real choice.

But The Constitution Will Save Us

What protects us against democratic backsliding?  Initially, our institutions and norms but ultimately, the Constitution.  But if institutions are co-opted and norms routinely flouted or violated, where does that leave us?  The Constitution is ultimately made of paper, and that paper is only as good as the people and groups willing to fight to uphold it.  If the party in power is beholden to a demagogue, will the legislature prove to be an effective check on a rogue president?  Will the Supreme Court use the Constitution to defend democracy or the would-be dictator who appointed them to their offices?

Now you might console yourself, defaulting to the fact that the 22nd Amendment prohibits Trump from running again in four years.  So he is term limited.  Problem solved.  But is he really?  A fellow aspiring autocrat, Nayib Bukele in El Salvador, was prohibited from running for a second term after his first four-year stint last year as president.  He simply resigned the presidency (in name only) for two months before the election, ran again, won resoundingly, and no one stopped him.  Because he had the support of the people and the loyalty of the military and had purged anyone who could resist him.  Sound familiar?  I wrote my doctoral dissertation on the violation of presidential term limits.  I know how this plays out.  It might be through a referendum (see Rwanda and Kagame, Paul).  If you don’t win the first referendum, try, try again with another one (see Venezuela and Chavez, Hugo).  Or you might get your packed supreme court to rule that the prevention of indefinite re-election is against your human rights (see Bolivia and Morales, Evo).

Republican Resistance Will Save Us

Some of you, the ones who haven’t been paying particularly close attention, might believe that traditional Republicans will step up and save us.  That the inherent ambition of politicians for the highest office will lead some in the Republican leadership to oppose his indefinite reign.  Surely, you reason, they will want their turn after waiting for Trump to complete his constitutionally appointed terms.  They will advocate for themselves and force him out.

But this fallacy belies everything we have seen regarding Trump’s relationship to the Republican Party.  It is his party, through and though.  It’s not a party so much anymore as a personality cult, emphasis on the cult.  They are enthralled to him, and any non-believers are viciously purged.  Do the Marco Rubios, Ted Cruzes, and Josh Hawley’s of the world really think they’ll have their day in the sun?  Not likely.

What Might Actually Save Us

So what hope is there against the growing tide of illiberalism in the US political space?  Well, we can look at democracies that have come back from the brink and how they did it.  In Colombia, an array of institutions (but most notably the Constitutional Court) prevented then-President Alvaro Uribe from securing a third term in 2010.  In Poland last year, we saw the encouraging defeat of the Law and Justice Party by a coalition of right and left-wing parties that were tired of its persistent illiberalism and put aside their differences to rescue their democracy.

It’s not going to be easy in the US to reclaim our own democracy, certainly after Trump and his cronies despoil and booby trap it over the next four years.  But the proverbial fight on every street corner for the soul of our democracy begins now.