As I was walking around downtown Buenos Aires last night, Venezuelan flags, hats, and soccer jerseys were everywhere.  Cars drove by honking their horns with people hanging out of the windows waving their country’s flag.  Its citizens, many if not most likely refugees from the Maduro regime, screamed, shouted, and cried out with joy.  Their exuberance is entirely understandable: Hugo Chavez and then Nicolas Maduro brutalized their country and its people for over two decades, ruined it economically, drove eight million people to leave, and crushed what had been a vibrant, prosperous regional democracy.  So they had reason to celebrate, and it seems cruel and mean-spirited to begrudge them their long-awaited celebrations.

I think most people who follow Venezuelan affairs (and I include myself among them) would agree that having Maduro gone is a good thing.  He had long ago lost what little legitimacy he had, and his murderous, rapacious, and incompetent rule needed to end, for the benefit of Venezuelans first and foremost but also for the benefit of the region as well, whose resources were stretched to the breaking point by the outpouring of refugees caused by his disastrous policies.  But this end does not excuse the illegal means by which it was done, nor does it remove the innumerable challenges and difficulties that remain facing the country.

Any group trying to pick up the pieces—the Trump Administration, the remnants of the Maduro regime, or the legitimately-elected opposition movement led by Maria Corina Machado—who would now try to govern it and manage its recovery, faces a herculean set of tasks: resuscitate the moribund economy; control the military and other armed factions in the country; restore oil production to previous levels to refill empty government coffers; get the state finances back in order; control hyperinflation; resume basic governance functionality and service delivery to the population; and begin to allow millions of refugees to return.  Even the most competent, legitimate, and fully-empowered regime would struggle with this daunting agenda.

At the current moment and given the current circumstances, it does not appear that any of these aforementioned groups would have this kind of clear, empowered mandate.  The Trump Administration has blown up an already fragile, borderline failed state, and as Tom Friedman pointed out in The NYT, they effectively now own it.  A competent US administration would not have done this, and a normal administration would at least own up to the consequences of its actions.  The Trump Administration is neither normal nor competent.  And so we can expect a jumbled mess of policy designed to do the one thing that Trump and his cronies do actually know how to do effectively: enrich themselves.  Oil contracts will be sold to the highest or, more likely, best-connected bidders.  Messaging on Venezuela, American intentions toward its leadership, and any support for a democratic transition will be muddled and based on Trump’s daily whims and Truth Social posts.  And so a confused policy with little interest in the well-being and prospects of the Venezuelan people will almost surely follow.  And the result of this jumbled policy will be continued chaos and uncertainty in Venezuela.

Before getting to what should be done, given the likely incompetent and incoherent Trump Administration response, let me talk about the way in which this was done.  Again, to be clear, I am glad Maduro is gone.  And I am happy for my many Venezuelan friends that they can temporarily sigh and smile and savor the downfall of their hated dictator.  I am glad for you my friends, and I hope you know that I wish nothing but good things for you and your beautiful, friendly, fun-loving country to which I hope to return to visit one day soon.  But that having been said, forcibly removing foreign leaders on flimsy pretenses is a flagrant violation of international law and sets a truly dangerous precedent.  How can the US now justifiably oppose the illegal Russian invasion of Ukraine?  How can we oppose similar actions by the Chinese Communist Party to remove the leadership of Taiwan and make it into a puppet rump territory, as they’ve done in Hong Kong?

When you throw the rules-based international order out of the window, you can no longer complain when it’s used in ways that violate your interests or preferences.  You can’t fall back on the defense of human rights, the protection of sovereignty, or the preservation of democracy and self-determination as core principles.  Trump believes that might makes right; there don’t have to be justifications, by law, norm, or code, when you have the power to do what you want.  And that just means that we will have a world full of bullies, groups of armed gangs, and coalitions of the willing to fight.  We won’t get to enjoy the many benefits of collective security that have ushered in unprecedented prosperity and poverty reduction over the last 80 years, which include nuclear non-proliferation, enhanced global economic integration, easier and better travel and migration opportunities, and, at the end of the day, greater global peace.  If everyone acts in their own self-interest, our collective interests go to shit.

The lasting danger in this precedent is that it will almost certainly outlive the Trump Administration.  Even when he is gone (and that day cannot come soon enough—can some heroic chicken please sacrifice its strong bones to lodge itself in his gullet while he sucks down yet another bucket of KFC for the love of God), other countries will point to this American precedent.  They will justify illegal actions and excuse away any number of abuses by claiming national interest, a principle that will have come to supersede the common good and collective interest.  And when we really need the international community, possibly to broker a peace, or to forge a world-saving climate change accord, or God-forbid to respond to an alien invasion, we will be well and truly fucked.

Now as to what should be done.  We know why Trump launched this invasion; he’s already told us it was to control Venezuelan oil.  But that doesn’t mean we can’t pressure him and his goons to do what’s right.  Maria Corina Machado has praised Trump’s actions in attacking Maduro and continued to do so yesterday after his capture and removal from the country.  She seems to think that this will lead to her democratic opposition movement to either be put in power or to have a fair chance at electoral victory in a new, upcoming election.  Either of these outcomes would be the better-case scenario.  Better than allowing the current, illegitimate government to remain in power.  Better than allowing a military coup, given that the military is the strongest, most potent institution left standing in the country.  And worlds better than allowing Venezuela to devolve into chaos and anarchy.  The US bought it, so in owning it, we need to be part of the solution of restoring Venezuelan governance.

Even though we created this power vacuum in wholly illegitimate fashion, we can still involve the international community in the solution.  Support the democratic transition, possibly with an international peace-keeping force.  But a focus on a democratic outcome, the restoration of representation, and the self-determination of the Venezuelan people remains paramount.  And so Democratic lawmakers, courageous (though admittedly few and far between) Republican lawmakers, civil society groups, concerned citizens, and registered voters need to communicate the importance of Venezuelan democracy to their leaders, and their leaders in turn need to press the issue with the administration.  Their responsibility to Venezuelan democracy needs to be made clear and needs to remain the chief priority.  Not pillaging of Venezuelan oil.  Not the distraction from the Epstein Files.  And certainly not the installation of a right-wing, friendly, puppet regime.  Maintain the focus.

Marco Rubio said in a recent news conference that the number one priority is protecting American interests.  As usual, he is flat-out fucking wrong.  The number one priority is the well-being of the Venezuelan people.  And that starts with the reestablishment of its democracy.  And the rebuilding of its economy.  Then we will begin to see the benefits of trade for the US with a revitalized Venezuela.  And the benefits to the region of the return of Venezuelan refugees to their homeland.  And this will actually result in a policy behind which we can all get on board: the AmericaS first.  All of them and all of us, together.